Weaponized Interdependence: Assessing the Ripple Effects of the 4F Crisis on Emerging Economies

Abstract

Background: The period from 2020 to 2023 produced a compound disruption in food, fuel, fertilizer and finance, the "4F crisis". It exposed how the dense networks that once promised efficiency can be turned into instruments of coercion and how their disruption spreads to economies that never took part in the underlying contest. This paper examines the crisis through the lens of weaponized interdependence, a framework that explains how states exploit their control over network hubs.

Methods: The study is a PRISMA-ScR-guided scoping synthesis with a comparative historical component. It screened a supplied thematic corpus of 117 records and added 39 sources identified by purposive citation chaining. Sixty-five sources were retained.

Results: Exposure to the 4F crisis was shaped less by the size of an economy than by the structure of its dependence. Concentrated import sourcing, dollar-denominated liabilities, thin fiscal space and prior climate or health stress determined outcomes. The evidence suggests that the 4F crisis was only partly the product of deliberate coercion. A large share of the harm came from collateral transmission, in which restrictions, sanctions, monetary tightening and export bans aimed at or triggered by great-power rivalry reached bystander economies through shared infrastructure. Export restrictions by third countries acted as a multiplier, as they did in 2007–08. Financial transmission through the dollar system turned a commodity shock into a balance-of-payments and debt shock.

Conclusion: Emerging economies are better described as structurally exposed bystanders than as targets. Resilience depends on diversifying sources and settlement channels, building buffers, and securing collective institutional protection. A four-stage model (exposure, transmission, amplification, adaptation) is proposed to guide analysis and policy, together with eight citable propositions.